关键词: 内循环, 全球价值链, 总产出

Abstract: Building a new development pattern in which domestic and international double cycles promote each other with the domestic cycle as the main body is a major decision to adapt to the conditions and environmental changes faced by China?s economic development. However, there is no standard method to measure the domestic cycle. From the perspective of global value chain, this paper proposes a measurement method of the domestic cycle from two dimensions: forward link based on domestic demand and backward link based on domestic supply. The advantage of this method is its consideration that all products, including intermediate products, need to be produced, circulated and consumed in China. The results show that between 2000 and 2014，at the national level, developed countries such as the United States and Japan have high levels of domestic cycle, Germany is lower, BRICS countries such as Brazil and have high levels of domestic cycle, and that of China and Russia was slightly lower. At the level of the three industries, the degree of the domestic cycle in agriculture and service industry is high, while the degree of the domestic cycle in manufacturing is low. At the industry level, in 2019, the lowest degree of domestic cycle in the manufacturing is in other manufacturing and recycling, while the food, beverage and tobacco industry has high levels of domestic cycle. There are significant differences in the impact of expanding the domestic cycle on the growth rate of added value in different industries. Typically, the transportation equipment manufacturing would experience faster growth, and domestic cycle should be amplified in this industry; but the agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry, and fishing industry, food, beverage, and tobacco industry, and the coke, refined petroleum and nuclear fuel industry would experience growth stagnation, so the logistics cost of such industries should be reduced, and domestic cycle quality be promoted, from the angle of liberal circulation of commodities and factors.

Key words: Domestic Cycle, GVC, Total Output